Yields Continue To Flatten – Fixed Income Update

– September 2018 A flattening Treasury yield curve remained a focal topic among fixed income analysts in August. The shrinking spread, or difference, between the yield on the 2-year Treasury note and the 10-year Treasury bond reached levels not seen since 2007. The interpretation is that longer term economic growth is expected to be muted, which is reflected in the …

Leading Scams Targeting Seniors – Retirement Planning

– September 2018 The National Council on Aging estimates that nearly 1 in 10 Americans over the age of 60 experiences some form of financial elder abuse. IRS Scams Callers claiming to be IRS agents often call unsuspecting seniors at home, accusing them of owing back taxes and having to pay immediately. The IRS impersonators threaten to foreclose on homes, …

Trade & Currency Concerns – International Update

– September 2018 Currency and debt concerns among emerging markets drove global volatility upward. Fiscal turmoil with Turkey and Argentina spread to other emerging economies as the fear of contagion rose. A stronger U.S. dollar in addition to tariff tensions added to the uncertainty as emerging market currencies fell versus the dollar. Russia, considered an emerging market, was also affected …

Federal Government Revenue Heading Higher – Fiscal Policy Overview

– September 2018 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its summary of the most recent federal budget as of July. The deficit of the first 10 months of the fiscal year 2018 reached 682 billion dollars, up $116 billion from a year earlier. Federal spending increased by $143 billion, attributable to increases in Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security expenditures. What …

Households Holding Less Debt – Consumer Behavior

– September 2018 The New York Federal Reserve Bank compiles data on how much debt and what type of debt households have. The most recent release of debt data shows that household debt as a percentage of disposable income fell to the lowest levels since 2002. Debt payments include loans on autos, mortgages, education, and credit card balances. The data …

Equities Maintain Their Resilience – U.S. Equity Markets

– September 2018 A persistent trade dispute between the United States and China has been lingering over the financial markets for some time now. Helping to buoy domestic markets are strong corporate earnings and improving economic data. Earnings from U.S. companies this quarter are being considered the healthiest since the third quarter of 2009 during the financial crisis. Some U.S. …

Emerging Market Currencies Experience Volatility

– September 2018 Currency valuations across the emerging markets are being affected by recent financial turmoil in Turkey and Argentina. The Turkish currency, the lira, has fallen over 40% year to date versus the U.S. dollar. The Turkish lira has been the hardest hit so far this year of all of the emerging market currencies. Emerging market currencies, as tracked …

Wireless Rates Are Due To Climb – Consumer Expenditures

– September 2018 Cell phone bills are rising across the country as providers eliminate promotions and consolidate operations. The announcement of recent mega mergers in the industry has reduced the number of providers and lessened competition, leading to increased rates for customers. As tracked by the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the cost of cell phone service is a …

Macro Economic Overview – September 2018

Trade and tariffs continued at the forefront of discussions among the U.S. and international trading partners. Topics at hand included the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and protecting U.S. intellectual property rights internationally. Emerging market currencies were rattled worldwide as turmoil with Argentina and Turkey spilled over into the broader markets. Contagion concerns spread …

New Rules Benefit 529 College Savings Plans As An Estate Tool

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act includes a provision to now allow 529 Plans to be used for private elementary and high school expenses, rather than just college related expenses. The new rules are a treat for both parents and grandparents looking for a better way to pay for private educational costs. Until now, the only plan that allowed for …

Macro Overview 2-1-2108

The rally in stocks that began following the election in 2016 propelled through 2017 as optimism and expectations that growth oriented policies and tax cuts would materialize. Political turmoil was not a deterrent for the markets, as major U.S. equity indices finished the year at near record levels. The Tax Cut & Jobs Act was signed into law by the …

Deficit History & Tax Cuts – Fiscal Policy

The passage of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act has prompted a flurry of analysis and criticism surrounding the affects on the Federal deficit due to lower tax revenue. Critics claim that the loss of tax revenue due to tax cuts will eventually lead to an increase in the Federal deficit unless economic growth is achieved. The affect on individuals …

Equity Overview – Global Stock Update

Global markets accelerated throughout 2017, marking new highs and sending broader market indices higher. The election prompted rally in domestic stocks continued on in 2017 as optimism and expectations that growth oriented policies and tax cuts would fuel earnings appreciation. International markets excelled in 2017 as both developing and emerging stocks were boosted by expanding economies throughout Europe and Asia. …

Bitcoin & The Greater Fool Theory – Consumer Behavior

A Bitcoin exchange in South Korea went out of business in December after it was hacked by cyber thieves that stole roughly 20% of it’s clients holdings, validating that cyber currency exchanges are still extremely susceptible to losses. Unlike a bond, stock or real estate, a cryptocurrency offers no intrinsic value, such as cash flow and earnings. Instead, the value …

The New Tax Bill – Fiscal Policy Review

Both individual taxpayers and companies will see broad changes for deductions and tax rates. The emphasis of the tax bill, known formally as the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, is to stimulate economic activity via new and higher paying jobs. This is why many of the changes directly benefit large and small businesses in order to encourage hiring. Some of …

Car Prices Are Falling – Auto Industry

Seven consecutive years of increasing U.S. auto sales have put a glut of vehicles on U.S. highways. In addition, a significant number of those sales were with a lease, leading to a rising tide of cars flowing back into the market as lease terms expired.  As automakers have added manufacturing capacity, they have also been aggressive in offering larger incentives on new vehicles in …

Consumers Are Spending More & Saving Less – Consumer Behavior

Recent government data reveals that Americans have been supporting their spending with their savings. The increase in spending is also recognized by economists as a sign of optimism and consumer confidence. Commerce Department data show that consumers have been spending more, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and saving less, as measured by the savings rate, which fell to a ten-year low …

Social Security Payments Increasing By 2% – Retirement Planning

Social Security recipients are due to receive the largest increase in benefits in six years. But for many recipients, the increase in payments will go towards higher Medicare costs. The Social Security Administration announced a 2% increase in benefit payments effective in late December 2017 for disability beneficiaries and in January 2018 for retired beneficiaries. The 2% increase is the …

Macro Overview November 2017

An improving economic environment and earnings optimism propelled markets higher, along with prospects that there might be some agreement on tax reform in Washington. The House of Representatives released a draft of tax policy proposals known as The Tax Cuts & Jobs Act. The prospect of lower taxes for corporations and individuals are part of the proposals while also targeting …

Shorter Settlement For Stocks & Bonds – Financial Planning

Commencing September 5, 2017, the settlement period for most security transactions will be shorten to two days, from three days. The two-day settlement date applies to most security transactions, including stocks, bonds, municipal securities, mutual funds traded through a brokerage firm, and limited partnerships that trade on an exchange. Government securities and stock options will continue to settle on the …

More Homes For Sale, Less Homes Sold – Housing Market Update

Dynamics within the housing market are a result of wages, consumer sentiment, interest rates, and the economic environment. Over the past year, the number of homes for sale and the number of homes sold has diverged. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development carefully tracks all home listings and sales on a monthly basis. The most recent data available …

Costliest Hurricanes – Historical Note

As flood waters recede in Texas, Hurricane Harvey is on track to be one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. Not since Hurricane Katrina, which ravaged Louisiana in 2005, and Gustav & Ike in 2008, have insurance companies been levied with billions of dollars in settlement claims. Fortunately, nearly nine years absent of a significant natural disaster has …

What To Do After A Major Credit Data Breach – Consumer Awareness

Be Proactive: Request A Copy Of Your Credit Report Now! Consider Freezing Your Credit: Only If You’re Not Applying For Credit Soon Subscribe To A Credit Monitoring Service: Most Are Monthly Subscriptions There are three major credit reporting companies in the United States: Equifax, Transunion, and Experian. Even though the three are distinct entities, they all perform very similar functions.This …

Recent Fed Rate Hikes In Question – Monetary Policy

Over the past 27 years, the Federal Reserve has raised it key rate, the Federal Funds Rate, 35 times, each to slow down inflationary pressures and to curtail elevating price levels. The Fed increased rates aggressively and consistently in 1994 to hold off a rapidly expanding economy, lifting rates six times for the year. A decade later, the Fed raised …

Macro Overview – July 2017

International markets reacted in June as central banks throughout Europe and Asia signaled that monetary stimulus efforts were slowly being dispatched. The news propped up European currencies including the euro, pound, and Swiss franc as anticipated higher rates tend to bode well for currencies. Central banks from around the world are slowly curtailing stimulus efforts and starting the process of …

Chinese Stocks Get Inducted – International Update

The European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that it might start curtailing its stimulus program as accelerating growth takes hold throughout Europe. The news drove European bond prices lower and yields higher, simultaneously lifting the euro. China was inducted into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a long awaited move by Chinese companies and international investors. MSCI, a U.S. company providing key …

Equity Overview – Global Equity Overview

The equity markets started to experience what stock analysts call a sector rotation, when one or several sectors fall out of favor leading to funds flowing to other sectors. This past month technology stocks fell as markets perceived that the sector may have become overvalued. As this occurred, banking and financial sector stocks rose, as favorable regulatory related news lifted …

Americans Are Working More & Sleeping Less – Demographics

The Department of Labor in June released a survey, called the American Time Use Survey, on how much time Americans spend working, sleeping, and a host of other activities. Nearly 10,500 people were surveyed by the Labor Department nationwide for this latest report. The survey found that Americans spent just over 4.5 hours each weekday working in 2016, an increase …

The Evolution of Bitcoin – Market Fact

An emerging form of digital currency has received tremendous media coverage this past month, Bitcoin, which is essentially virtual money that is traded digitally by exchanges. Bitcoins can only be purchased and sold with legitimate currency, such as dollars or euros, making it available worldwide. The total estimated value of Bitcoins worldwide as of May 30, 2017, is over 36 …

Fixed Income Update – Global Bond Markets

Analysts believe that demographical factors are increasingly influencing the direction of fixed income markets. Even after the fed raised rates this past quarter, along with a series of rate increase expectations, bond yields have reversed and headed lower. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield fell in April to 2.29%, levels last reached in November 2016. Volume of investment grade bonds …

A Brief History of Tax Cuts – Historical Note

For nearly a hundred years, tax cuts have been a centerpiece of political strife among politicians, with both parties at times lobbying for lower tax rates. An accepted belief has been that lower taxes widen the Federal deficit and provide no economic expansion. Contrary to this belief, prior tax cuts enacted by various presidential administrations actually yielded economic growth and …

Macro Overview – May 2017

Fiscal policy has taken center stage as President Trump’s tax proposals will begin a drawn out process for legislative approval. Individuals, small businesses, and large corporations are expected to benefit from the various proposals. Geopolitical risks weighed on global financial markets during early April as investors sought fixed income. Regardless, global equity markets achieved higher levels as confidence returned. French …

Oil Imports Into The U.S. Slowing – Commodities

For decades, the United States has relied on oil and petroleum imports in order to meet demand. Following the second world war, demand for gasoline and petroleum in the U.S. rose dramatically as economic growth and automobiles drove demand up. The Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-1974 tested the United States and its tolerance for reliance on the valuable commodity. As …

Brexit Is Finally Underway – Euro Region Update

Ever since British voters decided to have Britain exit the European Union (EU) in June 2016, the process and timeline of the exit have been in question. This past month, British Prime Minister Theresa May triggered Article 50 which begins a two year period of negotiations with the EU on exiting the union and establishing remediary trade arrangements with applicable …

Auto Sales May Have Peaked – Industry Overview

Low interest rates and aggressive leasing programs have made some fairly expensive cars affordable. Rather than struggling to get approved for a new home loan or refinance, Americans have instead financed cars, where getting a loan approval has been easier. The abundance of attractive loans has helped elevate auto sales throughout the country over the past few years. Recent auto …

Household Debt On The Rise Again – Consumer Finance

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, total household debt climbed to $12.58 trillion at the end of 2016, an increase of $460 billion for the year, making it the largest increase in almost a decade. The current amounts are almost equal to the debt levels Americans had in 2008, when total consumer debt reached a …

Macro Overview – April 2017

Equity markets advanced during the first quarter as improving economic data supported gradually rising earnings. A steady and predictable path of anticipated rate increases this year by the Federal Reserve was well received by financial markets. Domestic equity indices ended positive for the first quarter of 2017. The Dow Jones Industrial Index was up 4.6%, the S&P 500 Index returned …